Η «ηρεμία» στην αγορά συναλλάγματος δεν θα διαρκέσει για πολύ

It is quiet in foreign-exchange markets. Perhaps too quiet. All the action has been in stocks this year, as any bored foreign-exchange trader will tell you. The market is usually a hub for harsh retail trading but has been largely quiescent during the meme-stock phenomenon.The risk of a climb in currency volatility is something worth considering for investors with overseas exposure, as well as for corporate treasurers. Stocks are normally more volatile than other currencies. But the gulf between the Cboe Volatility Index-the familiar VIX “fear gauge” that measures the volatility of S&P 500 options-and the Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index, which does the same for euro dollar options, is large by the standards of recent history. The same is true for volatility in other currency pairs. The trend is relatively new. For most of the past decade, equity-market and currency volatility ground lesser and lesser in tandem, with occasional simultaneous spikes. But after markets started to recover from last year’s pandemic inspired selloff, the relationship was disrupted: Foreign-exchange volatility resumed its decline, but equity-market volatility settled at a higher plateau.